This Week in Trenton by PSI

November 1, 2009

October 30, 2009

Gubernatorial Race Update
A new Quinnipiac University poll has Governor Jon Corzine with a five point lead, 43%-38%, over Republican Christopher Christie – with independent Christopher Daggett at 13%.  This is Corzine’s first lead in a Quinnipiac poll and represents a six point swing for the Governor over a poll conducted two weeks ago by Quinnipiac.

“You could see it coming. Gov. Jon Corzine’s numbers crept steadily up and Christopher Christie’s steadily shrank and now, for the first time, we have Corzine ahead,” said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. “But don’t be in a hurry to mark this election as over.   Christopher Daggett changed it from ‘ABC’ – Anybody but Corzine – to a real three-way scrap.   But a lot of Daggett’s voters say they might change their minds by Election Day.   Where will they go?”

Democrats appear to be returning to Corzine (he’s gained three points in two weeks), while Christie has dropped four points among Republicans during that same time.  However, Christie has increased his lead among independents and is now ahead 45%-30%, six points better than two weeks ago, with Daggett getting 20% of independents.

Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,267 New Jersey likely voters between October 20-26, with a margin of error of +/- 2.8%.

Assembly Race Update
As the race for Governor continues to tighten, it appears that the Democrats are all but certain to maintain their large majority in the Assembly.

Republicans appear to be targeting three key Assembly districts on Election Day.

District 1 which includes Cape May County and pieces of Atlantic and Cumberland , where Democratic incumbents Nelson Albano and Matt Milam (both D-Cumberland) are challenged by Mike Donohue and John McCann in what was traditionally a GOP stronghold.  Many believe this is the best chance Republicans have to pick up a seat in the Assembly.

Two other districts being targeted by the Republicans are the 36th, which covers parts of Essex, Bergen and Passaic counties, where Republicans Carmen Pio Costa and Don Diorio are trying again to beat Assemblyman Fred Scalera and Assemblyman Gary Schaer after coming close in 2007.  The other district that the Republicans are targeting is District 14, which covers parts of Mercer and Middlesex counties, now represented by Assemblywoman Linda Greenstein and Assemblyman Wayne DeAngelo.  Republicans Rob Calabro and Bill Harvey are looking to unseat the incumbents.

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